Friday, June 1, 2018

Pompeo says he doesn't know if Kim-Trump summit will happen


US sizes up Kim ahead of possible nuclear summit



U S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Thursday he still doesn't know whether a summit between President Donald Trump and North Korea's leader will take place on June 12.
Pompeo, speaking to reporters in New York after two meetings with a senior North Korean official, said the two sides have made progress toward a successful meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, but that challenges remain.
"We've made real progress in the last 72 hours in terms of setting the conditions" for a successful summit, Pompeo said. But, he added, "make no mistake about it, there remains a great deal of work to do."
"Through these meetings I'm confident we're moving in the right direction," Pompeo said. He noted that US teams in Singapore and at the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea have also been meeting with North Korean counterparts.
Pompeo added that the two countries are at a "pivotal moment" and that it would be "nothing short of tragic to let this opportunity go to waste."
And he said he believes that North Korea's leaders are "contemplating a strategic shift ... one their country has not made before," but added that "it should not be to anyone's surprise" that roadblocks emerge.
The uncertainty and frustration that often characterize negotiations with North Korea have been compounded, in part, by Trump himself. The President abruptly called off the potentially historic meeting in a letter to the North Korean leader that some analysts saw as a classic "Art of the Deal" attempt to gain leverage. The difficulty in closing gaps between the North Korean and US positions is adding another kind of uncertainty.

Trump's soft-boiled diplomacy: 45-minute North Korea decision created a mess
Meanwhile, North Korean state media reported that North Korea and Russia have agreed to a meeting between their top leaders to mark the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The agreement, according to KCNA, came during a meeting between Kim and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Pyongyang on Thursday.
"After listening to Secretary Pompeo today, I would argue North Korea is still unwilling -- and maybe never will be willing -- to satisfy the Trump Administration's goal of a denuclearization agreement before any summit in Singapore," said Harry Kazianis, director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest. "And make no mistake: This is the key to getting a summit finalized."

'Positive signs'
Trump said earlier that meetings with a North Korean delegation in New York had gone "very well" and that he expects the delegation to travel to Washington on Friday to deliver him "a letter from Kim Jong Un."
Pompeo confirmed that the official he met with, former North Korean spy chief Kim Yong Chol, would be traveling to Washington to deliver a letter to the President.
"These are all positive signs," said Joel Wit, co-founder of 38 North, a website that tracks North Korea. "Everything that's happened since Trump threatened to cancel the summit, these are all positive signs. The issue is, what is the deal? And I don't know the answer to that right now. I don't think anyone knows."
Pompeo refused to talk about the "elements, the shape of an agreement" at his news conference, but the administration says it wants the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula -- an unwieldy phrase that has given rise to the acronym CVID.
There seems to be disagreement about how exactly to make that happen, though.
Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton have said they want a quick process, with Bolton in particular reportedly concerned that the North Koreans will use any longer term process to wring concessions from the United States.
Trump, on the other hand, has indicated some openness to a slower approach, saying, "It would certainly be better if it were all in one. Does it have to be? I don't think I want to totally commit myself."
Kazianis said that hammering out an agreement, or at least a framework, is vital before any meeting takes place.
"If Trump were to go to Singapore and give Kim Jong Un the photo op of a lifetime, photos that would legitimize Kim and be on par with (President Richard) Nixon being photographed with (Chinese leader) Mao (Zedong), he needs to make sure he is not getting played," Kazianis said. "And so far, there is no evidence that Pyongyang is truly serious about nuclear disarmament beyond aspirational pledges."

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